July 23, 2010

The Texas Pecan Growers Association has released their estimate for the 2010/11 pecan crop at 292 million inshell pounds.

Listed below is a recap of the crop estimates so far. 
                                                                                  Inshell Pounds
   Louisiana Pecan Growers                                               274,500,000
   Texas Pecan Growers Association                                   292,000,000
 

Cold storage holdings through June 30, 2010, totaled 172 million inshell pound equivalent. If disappearance continues at the current pace, we would expect a carryout of 90 to 95 million inshell pound equivalent at October 31.

In early July, U.S.D.A. released their final figure for the 2009/10 pecan crop at 292 million inshell pounds, a 17 million pound decrease over their first estimate of the crop back in October.

Below is a supply scenario based on a carryout of 95 million inshell pounds coupled with the Texas Growers estimate of 292 million pounds. Also listed is the current 2009/10 data so that you can compare the current year with the potential for the upcoming crop year.
 

The 2009/10 crop was a short on-year cycle which has allowed the potential for the upcoming off-year cycle to produce one of the largest off-year crops in history. The main concerns today continue to be weather related as we watch for too much rain or not enough rain in the southeast and the potential for hurricanes. To date, we have heard just minor concerns over scab in the southeast and everyone is waiting to see how significant the August drop will be. We still have a very long growing season ahead of us. The natural progression of the crop from July through September is a continuation of the inshell nut increasing in size and by mid September, the kernel will be undergoing the gel state.


China is expected to continue to be a strong force during the harvest season along with the normal holiday demand for first available inshell from gift packers and commercial shellers who will be buying, shelling and shipping to service fourth quarter half demand.

Our next estimate update will be in September by the National Pecan Shellers Association. In October, we will receive our first estimate by USDA.

Should you have any questions or wish to discuss the market, please feel free to give me a call at 800-469-6607.

If you haven't already done so, don't forget to visit our website, www.youngpecan.com, where you can view historical data on crop sizes, cold storage holdings and consumption as well as other interesting information. There you can also subscribe to receive all updates via email so you will have immediate notification of any new information available.

Cordially,

Helen Watts
Executive Vice President
Young Pecan Company
1200 Pecan Street
Florence, SC 29501
800-469-6607
hwatts@youngpecan.com